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Sheikh Hasina resignation: How does Bangladesh’s ‘power vacuum’ impact relations with India?

What is the impact of Hasina’s resignation on India?

Sheikh Hasina resignation: After serving as prime minister for the previous 15 years, Sheikh Hasina abruptly quit her position on Monday and left Dhaka, setting off a spectacular chain of events in neighboring Bangladesh.

Bangladesh’s Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman announced that Hasina had resigned and that the military would establish a caretaker administration in a news conference that was widely broadcast on state television.

Although Sheikh Hasina, 76, had ruled since 2009, she was accused in January of manipulating the results of the election. Millions of demonstrators in Bangladesh have called for her resignation over the past month, sparking serious turmoil around the nation.

Over 300 individuals lost their lives in the country as a result of clashes between security personnel and protestors in reaction to the intensifying rallies. As the situation worsened, Hasina decided to resign and leave the nation on Monday at midday via helicopter.

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Hasina’s ties to China and the US
Since the beginning of her first term in office, Sheikh Hasina and the US have had tense relations. Her foreign policy attitude was greatly impacted by the killing of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and the subsequent allegations of international involvement.

Under her leadership, the US had expressed disapproval of the democratic processes, especially her refusal to hold elections under a caretaker administration, a demand that the opposition had made and that parliament had rejected in 2011.

The US continued to be a significant investor, but the two countries’ political ties had soured. According to US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller, “the United States provided over 212 million dollars in bilateral economic development and health assistance to Bangladesh” in fiscal year 2023.

On Monday, the World Bank announced that it was assessing how the recent events in Bangladesh will affect its lending program.

The board of the World Bank authorized two projects in June, totaling $900 million, to help Bangladesh improve its financial and fiscal sector policies as well as its urban infrastructure to achieve sustainable and climate-resilient growth.

When questioned about the Teesta project in July of this year, Prime Minister Hasina made it clear that she preferred India over China, saying, “China is ready, but I want India to do the project.” Her broader efforts to lessen Bangladesh’s reliance on China were reflected in this preference.

Hasina reaffirmed her decision to have India manage the $1 billion Teesta River development project, following her unexpected departure from Beijing and return to Dhaka earlier in July.

Also read: Bangladeshi demonstrators break into Sangsad, chaos in the streets of Dhaka

What is the impact of Hasina’s resignation on India?
Bangladesh and India have a long history together, with New Delhi helping Dhaka out greatly in the 1971 Liberation War. The distance between the two nations is 4,096.7 km, which is the longest land border India has with any of its neighbors.

Given that Hasina was regarded as India’s closest regional ally when serving as prime minister of Bangladesh, the current course of events represents a strategic loss for India.

The extended nature of the current climate, according to senior diplomat and former Indian envoy to Bangladesh Pankaj Saran, may have a growing impact on Bangladesh’s economy, which is intimately linked to India’s economy, as reported by PTI.

India is impacted significantly by the political unrest that is currently occurring in Bangladesh. India has a stake in the peace and security of Bangladesh as a neighbor.

The “next couple of days will be critical,” according to Saran, and India must ascertain how her resignation will affect the actual situation.

“There is a power vacuum right now, which is being filled by the army. But now we have to see whether this situation and this development will lead to a halt in street protests, the return of the students, and a reduction in street violence. That we have to see,” he said.

The emergence of extremist groups in Bangladesh, the refugee crisis, and possible confrontations across the border must all be carefully managed by India. Because of this proximity, there needs to be active cooperation on several security concerns, such as police cooperation, anti-corruption initiatives, and the battle against people trafficking, illicit drug trafficking, and counterfeit currency.

Furthermore, other regional players, including China and Russia, who have not yet commented on the issue, would be intently monitoring India’s response to it.

(With inputs from agencies)